WatchGuard has announced its key cybersecurity predictions for 2026, highlighting the influence of AI-driven threats, evolving regulations, and a shift away from obsolete security tools.
Corey Nachreiner, WatchGuard Technologies' Chief Security Officer, stresses the need for organisations to swiftly adapt to changing threat landscapes and defence mechanisms.
Crypto-ransomware to become obsolete
Enhanced data backup and restoration strategies are making it less likely for organisations
By 2026, it is expected that crypto-ransomware will become outdated as cybercriminals pivot towards data theft and extortion. Enhanced data backup and restoration strategies are making it less likely for organisations to capitulate to traditional ransomware attacks.
Consequently, attackers are increasingly resorting to data theft, threatening leaks, and even reporting victims to regulatory bodies or insurance providers to escalate pressure. The profitability of data exposure now outweighs that of encryption.
AI to bolster defence against supply chain attacks
Open-source package repositories, which have been targeted by a surge of attacks, are under significant pressure. In response, these repositories will initiate AI-based defences to tackle supply chain threats in 2026.
By integrating automated SOC-style systems, repositories can detect and respond to attacks in real-time, meeting the persistent challenge posed by supply chain vulnerabilities.
Impact of the EU Cyber Resilience Act (CRA)
The EU Cyber Resilience Act, set to take effect in September 2026, will drive the adoption of secure-by-design
The EU Cyber Resilience Act, set to take effect in September 2026, will drive the adoption of secure-by-design principles. Software vendors in the EU will be required to report exploited vulnerabilities and security incidents within 24 hours, acting as a catalyst for incorporating security features from the outset.
Despite an initial period of adjustment, this regulation is expected to create a sustainable shift towards more robust security practices, while also navigating the complexities of overlapping global regulations.
AI-driven cyber breaches expected
2026 is anticipated to witness the first instance of a complete cyber breach executed by autonomous AI tools. This evolution, from AI assisting cybercriminals to independent attacks, involves entire breach processes—from reconnaissance to exfiltration—conducted at machine speed.
This development serves as a crucial alert for cybersecurity professionals, underlining the inevitability of AI-driven defences matching this rapid pace in detecting and countering threats.
Transition from traditional VPNs to ZTNA
ZTNA mitigates risks by providing access based on necessity, reducing potential vulnerabilities
Traditional VPNs and remote access tools are susceptible to attacks due to credential issues and a lack of multi-factor authentication. It is estimated that a third of breaches in 2026 will result from flaws in these legacy systems.
As a countermeasure, Small and Medium-sized Businesses (SMBs) are expected to migrate towards Zero Trust Network Access (ZTNA) technologies. ZTNA mitigates risks by providing access based on necessity, reducing potential vulnerabilities.
Growing importance of AI expertise in cybersecurity
The future of cybersecurity will largely revolve around AI, with attackers increasingly employing automated and adaptive tools. To effectively combat these challenges, cybersecurity professionals must attain mastery over AI technologies.
Proficiency in AI will become essential, with professionals expected to leverage it for automating detection and response, while also foreseeing and addressing new vulnerabilities.
Discover how AI, biometrics, and analytics are transforming casino security
WatchGuard has revealed its top six cybersecurity predictions for 2026, forecasting a year where AI-driven threats, regulatory pressures, and the decline of legacy tools will reshape the security landscape.
Corey Nachreiner, chief security officer at WatchGuard Technologies, emphasises that organisations must prepare for rapid evolution in both attack methods and defensive strategies.
Crypto-ransomware goes extinct
In 2026, crypto-ransomware will effectively go extinct, as threat actors abandon encryption and focus on data theft and extortion. Organisations have significantly improved their data backup and restoration capabilities, meaning they’re more likely to recover from a traditional crypto-ransomware attack without having to pay the extortion demands.
Instead, cyber criminals simply steal data, threaten to leak it and even report victims to regulators or insurance companies to increase pressure. Encryption no longer pays off; the real leverage will now come from exposure.
OSS box will leverage AI to defend against supply chain attacks
If the surge of attacks against open-source package repositories like NPM and PyPI has taught security teams anything, it’s that open source is under siege. It’s a losing battle and traditional security controls, such as tighter authentication and shorter token lifetimes, can’t keep up.
In 2026, open-source package repositories will adopt automated, AI-driven defences to fight back against a growing wave of supply chain attacks. To keep up with this significant and persistent threat, these repositories will become early adopters of automated SOC-style systems for their own applications, enabling them to detect and respond to attacks in real-time.
CRA reporting needs finally incentivise secure by design principals
In 2026, the EU Cyber Resilience Act (CRA) will finally become the market force that drives adoption of secure-by-design principles. With the first phase going into effect in September 2026, software manufacturers selling into the EU must report actively exploited vulnerabilities and security incidents within 24 hours. This is the most aggressive reporting requirement yet.
While the initial rollout will likely be chaotic as companies scramble to comply and more of their weaknesses are exposed, it will ultimately create a lasting incentive to build security into products from the start. At the same time, overlapping global regulations will reveal competing frameworks and contradictions, forcing organisations to navigate an increasingly complex web of compliance.
First breach carried out by autonomous, agentic AI tools in 2026
In 2025, WatchGuard predicted that multi-modal AI tools would be able to carry out every aspect of the attackers’ cyber kill chain, which proved to be true. 2026 will mark the year AI stops just assisting cybercriminals and starts attacking on its own. From reconnaissance and vulnerability scanning to lateral movement and exfiltration, these autonomous systems can orchestrate an entire breach at machine speed.
The first end-to-end AI-executed breach will serve as a wake-up call for defenders who have underestimated the speed at which generative and reasoning AIs evolve from tools into operators. The same capabilities that help businesses automate security workflows are being weaponised to outpace them. Organisations must fight fire with fire: only AI-driven defence tools that detect, analyse and remediate at the same velocity as attacker AIs will stand a chance.
The fall of VPN and remote access tools will lead to the rise of ZTNA
Traditional Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) and remote access tools are among the top targets for attackers due to the loss, theft, and reuse of credentials, combined with the common lack of multi-factor authentication (MFA). It doesn’t matter how secure VPNs are from a technical perspective; if an attacker can log in as one of your trusted users, the VPN becomes a backdoor giving them access to all your resources by default.
At least one-third of 2026 breaches will be due to weaknesses and misconfigurations in legacy remote access and VPN tools. Threat actors have specifically targeted VPN access ports over the past two years, either stealing users’ credentials or exploiting vulnerabilities in specific VPN products.
As a result, 2026 will also be the year when SMBs begin to operationalise ZTNA tools because it removes the need to expose a potentially vulnerable VPN port to the internet. The ZTNA provider takes ownership of securing the service through their cloud platform, and ZTNA does not give every user access to every internal network. Rather, it allows you to grant individual user groups access to only the internal services they need to perform their jobs, thereby limiting the potential damage.
AI expertise becomes a required skill for cybersecurity
It's nearly the dawn of a new era where cyber offense and defence will take place on an AI battleground. Attackers are already experimenting with automated, adaptive and self-learning tools. Defenders who can’t match that level of speed and precision will be outgunned before they know they’re under fire.
To survive, security professionals must go beyond simple understanding of AI toward mastery of its capabilities and harness it to automate detection and response while anticipating the new vulnerabilities it creates. By next year, AI literacy won’t just be a nice addition to a résumé, it’ll be table stakes, with interviewers diving in on practical applications of AI for cyber defence.
